Lok Sabha polls: Bookies betting heavily on Narendra Modi-led BJP government win

CHANDIGARH: The odds favour a Narendra Modi-led BJP coalition government, according to rates available from bookies, with a Lok Sabha tally that hovers at around 230 or so, a number that's better than what most opinion polls have been giving the party and its partners. 

Bookies are busy with India's general election having gotten underway with bets estimated at hundreds of crores of rupees on candidates. 

Punters will perhaps be looking for a better test of their acumen in the Indian Political League rather than the Indian Premier League that starts April 16, given the cricket tournament's recent travails over spot fixing. Just to be clear, betting on either 'league' is illegal in India but that's not really going to stop anyone, it seems. 

Bets are being placed daily on which party may form the next government after the vote is counted on May 16, the winning potential of a candidate and even the berth an MP might get in the ensuing administration. 

Former Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal seems to be the Shahid Afridi of this league — the political equivalent of a player who could win a match from a hopeless position. A bet on Kejriwal for prime minister has the longest odds: Rs 1 lakh will return Rs 5 crore in the event that such a development comes to pass. 

On the other hand, Modi is the bookies' favourite for getting to the Lok Sabha seat and becoming prime minister. 

A Rs 1 lakh bet will return Rs 25,000 if Modi becomes the PM. A person doesn't pay any money at the time of placing a bet but has to pay up in the event of a loss or gets paid if the bet pays off. 

For winning from Varanasi, the rate is 3:4 for Modi. This means a Rs 1 lakh bet on Modi will return Rs 3,000. A bet of Rs 4,000 against Modi in favour of any of his rivals will return Rs 1 lakh in case the BJP prime ministerial candidate loses. 

LK Advani and Sushma Swaraj are also favourites from their constituencies. While similar rates apply for Advani from Gandhinagar, that for Swaraj is 5:7. On Rs 1 lakh, the return would beRs 5,000 if she wins. A bet of Rs 7,000 against her will return Rs 1 lakh if she loses.

Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is also tipped to win and has a betting rate similar to that of Swaraj. 

So strong are the chances of Congress president Sonia Gandhi winning from Rae Bareli that bookies have stopped accepting bets on her. Until Sunday, the betting rate was 3:4 on her. 

Veteran leader Jaswant Singh, recently expelled from the BJP, is seen coming in fourth in Barmer by the bookies. The favourite is BJP's Sonaram Chowdhury at 40:45. Rs 1 lakh earns Rs 40,000 if BJP wins. A Rs 45,000 bet against the BJP candidate returnsRs 1 lakh if he loses. 

Going by the betting rates, BJP's Harsh Vardhan is tipped to win from Chandni Chowk in Delhi against Union minister Kapil Sibal. A bet of Rs 1 lakh in favour of Vardhan will returnRs 30,000 while a bet of Rs 35,000 against him will fetch Rs 1 lakh if the BJP leader loses. 

According to prevalent market rates, heavy bets are also being made on the number of seats BJP and Congress will be able to secure. The rates available are at about 232:234 for BJP. A bet ofRs 1 lakh in favour of BJP getting 232 seats or less will return that much. If the seats won exceeds this number, the bettor will have to pay Rs 1 lakh to the bookie. Similarly, if a Rs 1 lakh bet is placed that BJP will win 234 or more seats and this comes about, the bettor will earn that amount. But if it drops below that number, the bettor has to pay Rs 1 lakh.

For Congress, the ratio is 72:74. For any bet placed on Congress getting 72 or less, the betting amount will be returned. As far as forming the new government is concerned, BJP is the bookies' favourite. They will pay onlyRs 31,000 for a bet of Rs 1 lakh if it forms the new government in coalition with any other party. However, a bet of Rs 33,000 on Congress will earn Rs 1 lakh if Congress returns to power. 

In the northern region, while twotime MP from Kurukshetra, Naveen Jindal, is most favoured to win, Haryana Congress president Ashok Tanwar is trailing in Sirsa, according to bookies. 

In Ludhiana, Aam Aadmi Party candidate HS Phoolka isn't given much of a chance. In Bathinda, citadel of the Shiromani Akali Dal, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, daughter-in-law of Punjab chief minister Parkash Singh Badal, is favoured to win at 16:19. A bet of Rs 19,000 against her will return Rs 1 lakh rupees if she loses. 

There's heavy betting on the contest between Captain Amarinder Singh of the Congress and his BJP rival Arun Jaitley in Amritsar. It's the only constituency where betting rates for both candidates are exactly the same. A Rs 1 lakh bet will earn Rs 90,000 on either. 

In Chandigarh, AAP candidate Gul Panag's stock has suddenly risen after party Arvind Kejriwal's road show and the tepid response to Narendra Modi's rally. A bet of Rs 1 lakh on Panag will return Rs 5 lakh.

Clinching evidence to arrest Modi, Shah in Ishrat case: Kapil Sibal

Ahmedabad: Union Minister Kapil Sibal on Monday raked up alleged fake encounter of Ishrat Jahan to hit out at Narendra Modi saying the BJP's PM nominee and Amit Shah were being "shielded" despite existence of "clinching" evidence to arrest them.

"I want to ask who is shielding Modi and Shah when, as per lawyers like us, there is a clinching evidence to arrest them in the case of fake encounter of Ishrat Jahan and three others," Sibal told reporters here.

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The hard-hitting attack by Sibal came on the last day of campaigning for the single-phase polls in Gujarat to be held on April 30. 

Joining Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, party vice-president Rahul Gandhi and other leaders in attacking Modi's development model, Sibal said, "many models are being talked about in the country now, but this is an encounter model of Gujarat". 

Elaborating about "clinching evidence" Sibal said, "There are call records of talk between accused police officer DG Vanzara and the then minister of state for Home Amit Shah at the time of encounter and before the encounter that took place on June 15, 2004. 

"There are statements of police officers under CrPC 164 pointing fingers at them," the minister said. 

Quoting from resignation letter of Vanzara, Sibal said, "Vanzara has said that 'being field officers, they have simply implemented the conscious policy of this government. 

"Clearly, all this could not have happened without Modi's knowledge," he alleged. 

"All the pieces have now fallen into place. The highest authority in the state, from the evidence as disclosed, now needs to answer. Courts need to stand-up for human rights and deal swiftly against those who, through fake encounters, eliminated people," Sibal said. 

Responding to a query that whether the CBI which works under the Central government is protecting Modi and Shah from arrest, Sibal said, "CBI is not working under the Central government". 

CBI, investigating the alleged fake encounter of Ishrat Jahan and three others, has not included any political leaders in chargesheets filed by it but has charged police and IB officers for murder and criminal conspiracy among other things. 

When asked if any top Congress leader in Central government is "soft" on Modi and Shah and is instrumental in keeping them out of the CBI charge sheet, Sibal replied in the negative. 

On the snooping controversy, Sibal said his government will appoint a judge to probe the incident before May 16. 

When his attention is drawn to reports in media that some retired judges have declined to head the Commission appointed by Centre to conduct inquiry into alleged snooping of a woman architect in Gujarat, Sibal said,"I do not believe in newspaper reports... Why should I believe in newspaper reports...? 

On the issue of land dealings of Sonia Gandhi's son-in-law Robert Vadra which the BJP has alleged to be dubious, Sibal said, "They are levelling these allegations for the last two years...Let them conduct inquiry into the issue". 

Interestingly, Sibal had earlier said Narendra Modi was a "potential accused" in the Tulsiram Prajapati murder case and sought interrogation by CBI. BJP had rubbished his allegations then.